A tangential-to-the-draft question I've wondered about for awhile:
what's with all the sub 4.4 40 times I read about w/respect to college & pro footballers?
When I was a lad playing ball (early '90s), I recall that 4.5 was NFL-quality speed for basically any skill position.
Now to run a 4.52 in the combine (even if you're a 230# back, eg Echemandu from Cal) drops you 2-3 rounds in the draft. I've read alot about 4.3's and the occasional 4.2. I also had a computer game for my Mac Plus that had the 40 time of every NFL player in 1989. A few 4.4's, lot's of 4.5's, nothing lower.
It is difficult to believe this-- for comparison, the 100m dash world record has not dropped 7% in the last 15 years-- from 1991 to 2002 (closest comparable changes) it's gone from 9.86 to 9.78 (less than 1%).
possible explanations:
A). I am imagining this, no such trend in reporting exists.
B). The trend reflects real improvement-- better training, better drugs, better athletes playing football, or NOT playing baseball/track/hockey and playing fb instead, etc.
C). 40-time inflation (deflation, really) , by coaches, trainers, reporters, or what-have-you. I know coaches do this stuff, it's not like stats, it's relatively easy to tell a reporter "my guy ran a 4.3 with helmet and pads on" whether any such thing happened or not. However, you'd think accuracy would be the goal at draft combine-type-situations.
I know lifting weights makes people run faster. But 7% faster in 10 years, while getting bigger? Essentially all college and pro football players were weight-training year-round in 1990, while I would not guess that was true in 1980. I would actually expect times to be flattening out, while athletes got larger.
What do other people think? Besides that this is another too-long RTA-post.
RTA